Sporting CP beat Braga 3–1. Braga had 15 shots (4 on target) to Sporting CP's 9 (3), with 49% of the ball against 51%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.0, so Braga created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Sporting CP beat Braga 3–1. Braga had 15 shots (4 on target) to Sporting CP's 9 (3), with 49% of the ball against 51%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 1.0, so Braga created the better chances and still lost the game.
Braga 1–3 Sporting CP, played on 09 Oct 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Braga 30%, the draw 27% and Sporting CP 43%.
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–1.0, Shots 15–9, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 11–7, Big chances 3–2, Corners 5–2, Saves 1–3, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 1–1.
Yes — both Braga and Sporting CP scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.