FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Lens 0–2 Sporting CPMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lens or draw at 69%. Bawler had Lens at 45%, the draw at 25% and Sporting CP at 31%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
45%
Draw
25%
Sporting CP win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.