What we expect
In plain English
Borussia Dortmund are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won six of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Werder Bremen, and Werder Bremen have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Borussia Dortmund to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Borussia Dortmund are favoured (67% win probability vs 13% for Werder Bremen, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Werder Bremen (11.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.06.
How does Bawler predict Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Borussia Dortmund 67%, the draw 20% and Werder Bremen 13%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.20 and away expected goals 0.85.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.06. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).