FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Sabah FK 1–2 Borussia DortmundMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Dortmund to win at 63%. Bawler had Sabah FK at 17%, the draw at 20% and Borussia Dortmund at 63%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sabah FK win
17%
Draw
20%
Borussia Dortmund win
63%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 2.3
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 3.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Borussia Dortmund to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 85%, driven by Dortmund's 2.15 xG and a 0.95 expected-goals advantage that should overwhelm Sabah's defensive setup."