FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia DortmundMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bodo/Glimt or draw at 63%. Bawler had Bodo/Glimt at 38%, the draw at 25% and Borussia Dortmund at 37%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bodo/Glimt win
38%
Result
Draw
25%
Borussia Dortmund win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.