FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia DortmundMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Dortmund or draw at 74%. Bawler had 1. FC Union Berlin at 26%, the draw at 25% and Borussia Dortmund at 48%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
1. FC Union Berlin win
26%
Draw
25%
Result
Borussia Dortmund win
48%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Borussia Dortmund or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.