What we expect
In plain English
Benfica are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Vitória de Guimaraes, and Vitória de Guimaraes have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Benfica to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
Bawler's model rates this match: Benfica are favoured (70% win probability vs 11% for Vitória de Guimaraes, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Benfica 2-0 Vitória de Guimaraes (11.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.09.
How does Bawler predict Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Benfica 70%, the draw 19% and Vitória de Guimaraes 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
BTTS: Yes (50% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.28 and away expected goals 0.82.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.09. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).