FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Friday, 23 October 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 5–0 MaritimoMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Vitória de Guimaraes or draw at 76%. Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 50%, the draw at 26% and Maritimo at 24%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vitória de Guimaraes win
50%
Result
Draw
26%
Maritimo win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Vitória de Guimaraes' 0.57 expected-goals advantage and 50% win probability make Over 1.5 Goals the model's high-confidence call at 76%, as the hosts' superior shot quality should translate to a multi-goal contest."