Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders FC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals hits 80% probability as both sides combine for 2.99 expected goals in an evenly matched contest where Seattle's 40% win chance reflects attacking depth through Jordan Morris on the wing.
Austin average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Seattle Sounders average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Austin vs Seattle Sounders — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Austin and Seattle Sounders — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Austin 31% · draw 30% · Seattle Sounders 40%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.