FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Austin FC 3–1 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Austin FC at 31%, draw at 30%, Seattle Sounders FC at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-1. The model's headline call was Seattle Sounders FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
FC win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.39 – 1.60
Total 2.99
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals hits 80% probability as both sides combine for 2.99 expected goals in an evenly matched contest where Seattle's 40% win chance reflects attacking depth through Jordan Morris on the wing."