Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati prediction — MLS · Sun 11 Oct · 00:30 UK

MLS · Sun 11 Oct · 00:30 UK
42Atlanta United FC win24Draw34FC Cincinnati win
Full time
1–3

How it finished

FC Cincinnati beat Atlanta United FC 3–1. Atlanta United FC had 16 shots (6 on target) to FC Cincinnati's 13 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.9.

Atlanta…Full-time statsFC Cincinnati
56%Possession44%
1.1Expected goals (xG)1.9
16Shots13
6Shots on target4
10Shots inside box11
2Big chances3
5Corners4
0Saves5
8Fouls14
7Offsides1
2Yellow cards3
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Atlanta United FC win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (10%)
Expected goals
1.8v1.6
3.4 in total
Both teams score
66%
Yes
3+ goals
66%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FCFC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
1.8Goals1.6
18.8Shots14.4
5.4On target7.1
5.6Corners5.3
Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FCFC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
0.8Goals0.9
8.6Shots6.5
2.4On target3.2
2.7Corners2.5
Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FCFC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
1.0Goals0.7
10.3Shots7.9
3.0On target3.9
3.0Corners2.8

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals85%
Atlanta United FC to score83%
Goal before half-time81%
FC Cincinnati to score80%

First half — what we expected

Atlanta United FC
54%
to score before half-time
FC Cincinnati
58%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FCFC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
58%8+ shots34%
36%10+ shots17%
65%2+ shots on target79%
23%4+ shots on target39%
69%2+ corners66%
28%4+ corners26%

League position

FC Cincinnati in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Feb 2026FC Cincinnati 2–0 Atlanta United
May 2025Atlanta United 4–2 FC Cincinnati
Mar 2025FC Cincinnati 2–2 Atlanta United
May 2024FC Cincinnati 1–0 Atlanta United
Apr 2024Atlanta United 1–2 FC Cincinnati
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

MLS table →
All fixtures & results →Atlanta United FC form →FC Cincinnati form →

Common questions

Who won Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?

FC Cincinnati beat Atlanta United FC 3–1. Atlanta United FC had 16 shots (6 on target) to FC Cincinnati's 13 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.1 to 1.9.

What was the final score in Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atlanta United FC 42%, the draw 24% and FC Cincinnati 34%.

What were the stats in Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.9, Shots 16–13, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 10–11, Big chances 2–3, Corners 5–4, Saves 0–5, Fouls 8–14, Offsides 7–1, Yellow cards 2–3.

Did both teams score in Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Yes — both Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 66% before kickoff.