Spain: La LigaFriday 28 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Alavés vVillarreal

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Alavés 45%Draw 32%Villarreal 23%
How we get there
AlavésstepVillarreal
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.00
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.00

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Alaves average 6.1 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). Villarreal average 2.9 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
1
1
12
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Alavés fixtures & form →Villarreal fixtures & form →

Alaves vs Villarreal — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Alaves and Villarreal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Alaves 45% · draw 32% · Villarreal 23%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Alaves predictions & form →Villarreal predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.