AJ Auxerre vs Nice prediction — Ligue 1 · Sat 12 Sept · 19:45 UK

Ligue 1 · Sat 12 Sept · 19:45 UK
AJ Auxerre 44Draw 27Nice 29
The call
71%
AJ Auxerre or draw
2.7
Goals expected
14d 04hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

AJ Auxerre to score78%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Under 3.5 goals71%
Nice to score70%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)D L W W W L
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5AJA 2 · D 2 · NIC 1
Opponent strength indexLower mid

Head to head

May 2026Auxerre 2–1 Nice
Aug 2025Nice 3–1 Auxerre
Mar 2025Nice 1–1 Auxerre
Aug 2024Auxerre 2–1 Nice
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Common questions

Who will win AJ Auxerre vs Nice?

Bawler's model rates this match: AJ Auxerre are favoured (44% win probability vs 29% for Nice, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for AJ Auxerre vs Nice?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is AJ Auxerre 1-1 Nice (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.71.

How does Bawler predict AJ Auxerre vs Nice?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives AJ Auxerre 44%, the draw 27% and Nice 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in AJ Auxerre vs Nice?

BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.52 and away expected goals 1.19.

Over or under 2.5 goals in AJ Auxerre vs Nice?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.71. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →AJ Auxerre form →Nice form →