> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Saturday 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Uruguay vs Spain
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 72% because Spain's 1.66 xG plus Uruguay's creator Valverde and Darwin NΓΊΓ±ez's combined 42% of team shot-generation power projects a genuinely open, high-volume encounter.
Win probability
24.0% home30.0% draw46.0% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
UruguaystepSpain
1.15Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.66
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.15Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + X2 + Lamine Yamal 2+ Shots on Target
Model 14.4% Β· @ 6.96x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Uruguay 0β1 Spain
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+