Uruguay vs Spain
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 72% because Spain's 1.66 xG plus Uruguay's creator Valverde and Darwin Núñez's combined 42% of team shot-generation power projects a genuinely open, high-volume encounter.
Uruguay average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Spain average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Uruguay vs Spain — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Uruguay and Spain — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Uruguay 24% · draw 30% · Spain 46%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.