Match predictionยทWorld: World CupยทMonday 06 Jul, 19:00 UTC
Portugal vs Spain
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain โ every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 73% because Portugal's 1.45 xG and Spain's 1.33 xG combine for a high-variance total that leans toward a multi-goal affair, even with win odds nearly split three ways.
Win probability
34.3% home30.8% draw35.0% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
PortugalstepSpain
1.42Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.44
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final goal estimate โ what the model uses1.44
Scoreline distribution ยท chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
6
3
1
1
8
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 69.3% ยท @ 1.44
VALUEPro
1X
Model 52.9% ยท @ 1.89
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 26.3% ยท @ 3.81
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Under 10.5 Corners + Lamine Yamal 3+ Shots + 1X
Model 21.1% ยท @ 4.74x
Star picks ยท player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Cristiano Ronaldo
Portugal ยท Al Nassr
52%@ 1.92x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Lamine Yamal
Spain ยท Barcelona
40%@ 2.50x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Mikel Oyarzabal
Spain ยท Real Sociedad
40%@ 2.50x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Portugal 0โ1 Spain
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+