Spain vs Cape Verde
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals at 74% probability is the play, with Spain's 0.95 xG advantage and 56% win odds ensuring attacking pressure even in a low-total fixture.
Spain average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Cape Verde average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Spain vs Cape Verde — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Spain and Cape Verde — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Spain 56% · draw 27% · Cape Verde 17%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.