Match predictionยทWorld: World CupยทThursday 02 Jul, 19:00 UTC
Spain vs Austria
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain โ every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals at 80% is the play: Spain's 1.96 xG nearly doubles Austria's 1.01, and the hosts' xG share of 66% suggests sustained attacking pressure that breaks through a thin defensive line.
Win probability
55.4% home27.3% draw17.3% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
SpainstepAustria
1.89Base xG ยท rolling 26-match0.99
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.89Final goal estimate โ what the model uses0.99
Scoreline distribution ยท chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
10
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 74.4% ยท @ 1.34
DARK HORSEPro
Under 2.5 Goals
Model 25.7% ยท @ 3.90
BAWL OUTPro
Lamine Yamal 3+ Shots + Over 22.5 Shots + BTTS Yes + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 26.1% ยท @ 3.83x
Star picks ยท player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Lamine Yamal
Spain ยท Barcelona
40%@ 2.50x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Mikel Oyarzabal
Spain ยท Real Sociedad
40%@ 2.50x fair
To Be BookedPro
Rodri
Spain ยท Man City
27%@ 3.70x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Spain 3โ0 Austria
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+