Match predictionΒ·World: World CupΒ·Sunday 05 Jul, 20:00 UTC
Brazil vs Norway
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain β every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 76% with Brazil generating 1.84 xG at home while Norway's Haaland (30% of their xG) faces a 0.76 expected-goal deficit.
Win probability
52.0% home28.1% draw19.9% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
BrazilstepNorway
1.84Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.08
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.84Final goal estimate β what the model uses1.08
Scoreline distribution Β· chance of each scoremodel estimate
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10
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home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 75.6% Β· @ 1.32
DARK HORSEPro
Under 2.5 Goals
Model 24.3% Β· @ 4.11
BAWL OUTPro
Alexander SΓΈrloth 1+ Shot on Target + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + 1X
Model 23.8% Β· @ 4.20x
Star picks Β· player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Erling Haaland
Norway Β· Man City
62%@ 1.61x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
VinΓcius Jr
Brazil Β· Real Madrid
50%@ 2.00x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Raphinha
Brazil Β· Barcelona
43%@ 2.33x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Brazil 1β2 Norway
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+