Match prediction·World: World Cup·Tuesday 30 Jun, 17:00 UTC

Ivory Coast vs Norway

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 2.5 Goals projects at 68% because Ivory Coast's 1.25 xG and Norway's 1.43 xG combine to favour a multi-goal affair, with Haller and Haaland driving penetration on either flank.

📊 Win probability
30.0% home31.9% draw38.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Ivory CoaststepNorway
1.25Base xG · rolling 26-match1.43
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.43

Ivory Coast average 7.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Norway average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
9
4
1
2
5
8
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Norway or draw
59%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Erling Haaland
Norway · Man City
62%
To score
Alexander Sørloth
Norway · Atletico Madrid
42%
To assist
Martin Ødegaard
Norway · Arsenal
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Ivory Coast vs Norway — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ivory Coast and Norway — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ivory Coast 30% · draw 32% · Norway 38%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Ivory Coast 12 Norway
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.