> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Tuesday 30 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Ivory Coast vs Norway
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals projects at 68% because Ivory Coast's 1.25 xG and Norway's 1.43 xG combine to favour a multi-goal affair, with Haller and Haaland driving penetration on either flank.
Win probability
30.0% home31.9% draw38.1% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
Ivory CoaststepNorway
1.25Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.43
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.43
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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12
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + X2 + Under 8.5 SOT + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 25.6% Β· @ 3.91x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Ivory Coast 1β2 Norway
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+