> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Friday 26 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Norway vs France
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 75% probability because France's 1.63 xG and Norway's 1.25 xG combine for 2.88 expected tallies, with MbappΓ© and Haaland both primed to contribute in a fixture France edges 43% to win.
Win probability
23.2% home29.2% draw47.5% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
NorwaystepFrance
1.16Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.73
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.16Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.73
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Michael Olise 1+ Shot on Target + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + X2
Model 26.2% Β· @ 3.82x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Norway 1β4 France
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+