> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Tuesday 30 Jun, 21:00 UTC
France vs Sweden
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 77% because France's 2.01 xG dwarfs Sweden's 0.95, giving the hosts the firepower to breach a porous visitor defence.
Win probability
56.7% home26.8% draw16.5% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
FrancestepSweden
1.94Base xG Β· rolling 26-match0.97
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.94Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses0.97
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
3
1
1
11
10
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
7
6
3
1
4
3
3
2
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
France 3β0 Sweden
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+