Match predictionΒ·World: World CupΒ·Saturday 04 Jul, 21:00 UTC
Paraguay vs France
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain β every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 70% because France's 1.99 xG nearly doubles Paraguay's 0.76, with MbappΓ© and Thuram leading a 63% win-probability advantage that translates to relentless attacking pressure.
Win probability
11.6% home25.1% draw63.3% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
ParaguaystepFrance
0.76Base xG Β· rolling 26-match2.00
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
0.76Final goal estimate β what the model uses2.00
Scoreline distribution Β· chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
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0
6
13
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4
2
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10
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6
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home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 70.6% Β· @ 1.42
VALUEPro
BTTS Yes
Model 51.9% Β· @ 1.93
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 25.8% Β· @ 3.88
Star picks Β· player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Kylian MbappΓ©
France Β· Real Madrid
55%@ 1.82x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Marcus Thuram
France Β· Inter Milan
42%@ 2.38x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Ousmane DembΓ©lΓ©
France Β· PSG
38%@ 2.63x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Paraguay 0β1 France
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+