France vs Iraq
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
France are overwhelming favourites against Iraq and should win comfortably — the model now reflects that gulf in quality.
France average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Iraq average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
France vs Iraq — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between France and Iraq — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: France 82% · draw 14% · Iraq 4%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.