Match prediction·World: World Cup·Monday 22 Jun, 21:00 UTC

France vs Iraq

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

France are overwhelming favourites against Iraq and should win comfortably — the model now reflects that gulf in quality.

📊 Win probability
82.2% home13.7% draw4.2% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
FrancestepIraq
2.89Base xG · rolling 26-match0.59
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.89Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.59

France average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Iraq average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
2
1
1
9
5
2
2
13
8
2
3
12
7
2
4
9
5
2
5
5
3
1
6
2
1
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
82%
Over 3.5 goals
39%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Kylian Mbappé
France · Real Madrid
55%
To score
Marcus Thuram
France · Inter Milan
42%
To score
Ousmane Dembélé
France · PSG
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

France vs Iraq — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between France and Iraq — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: France 82% · draw 14% · Iraq 4%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
France 10 Iraq
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.