England vs Croatia
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% because both sides generate identical expected goals (1.42 each) with Kane and Kramarić commanding equal offensive weight at 22% of their team's xG.
England average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Croatia average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
England vs Croatia — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between England and Croatia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: England 35% · draw 31% · Croatia 34%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.