Match predictionΒ·World: World CupΒ·Monday 06 Jul, 00:00 UTC
Mexico vs England
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain β every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% because Mexico's 1.49 xG and England's 1.27 combine for a 2.76 total that projects well past the line, despite Mexico's narrow 39% win probability masking even scoring chances.
Win probability
39.1% home31.3% draw29.7% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
MexicostepEngland
1.35Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.33
Γ 1.10Home advantage Β· Host nationΓ 0.95
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final goal estimate β what the model uses1.27
Scoreline distribution Β· chance of each scoremodel estimate
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home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 80.4% Β· @ 1.24
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 25.6% Β· @ 3.90
BAWL OUTPro
Bukayo Saka 1+ Shot on Target + 1X + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 27.7% Β· @ 3.62x
Star picks Β· player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Harry Kane
England Β· Bayern Munich
60%@ 1.67x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Santiago GimΓ©nez
Mexico Β· AC Milan
42%@ 2.38x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Bukayo Saka
England Β· Arsenal
42%@ 2.38x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Mexico 2β3 England
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+