Match prediction·World: World Cup·Tuesday 23 Jun, 20:00 UTC

England vs Ghana

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 77% because England's 2.10 xG vastly outmatches Ghana's 0.81, creating the goal-heavy script this market demands.

📊 Win probability
62.8% home24.8% draw12.4% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
EnglandstepGhana
2.05Base xG · rolling 26-match0.83
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.83

England average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Ghana average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
5
2
1
1
12
10
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
8
7
3
1
4
4
3
1
5
2
1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Harry Kane
England · Bayern Munich
60%
To score
Bukayo Saka
England · Arsenal
42%
To score
Antoine Semenyo
Ghana · Bournemouth
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

England vs Ghana — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between England and Ghana — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: England 63% · draw 25% · Ghana 12%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
England 00 Ghana
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.