> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทSaturday 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC
Panama vs England
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because England's 2.13 xG paired with Kane's 22% team creation share and Panama's 0.76 xG output creates a 1.37-goal gap that favors high-scoring play.
Win probability
10.8% home23.2% draw66.0% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
PanamastepEngland
0.79Base xG ยท rolling 26-match2.15
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
0.79Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses2.15
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
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4
5
6
0
5
11
12
9
5
2
1
1
4
9
10
7
4
2
1
2
2
4
4
3
1
1
3
1
1
1
4
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Josรฉ Fajardo 1+ Shot + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Away Win
Model 28.4% ยท @ 3.52x
Take this pick โ> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Panama 0โ2 England
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+