> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทWednesday 01 Jul, 16:00 UTC
England vs Congo DR
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because England's 1.95 xG dwarfs Congo DR's 0.85, giving the hosts a decisive 1.10 edge in shot quality.
Win probability
60.1% home26.1% draw13.8% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
EnglandstepCongo DR
1.95Base xG ยท rolling 26-match0.85
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.95Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses0.85
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
5
2
1
1
12
10
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
8
6
3
1
4
4
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+