Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Derby
Team profile · ENGLAND: Championship

Derby Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
5
4 settled
Goals for
1.26
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.25
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
75%
3/4 calls

Derby prediction: for Derby's next match — Charlton vs Derby on Saturday 15 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Charlton are favoured (43%). The model's strongest call is 1X.

Derby sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.26 expected goals a game and conceding 1.25. Next up is a trip to Charlton Athletic, where the model has them as underdogs at 24%.

Next match

Away vs Charlton · Saturday 15 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
24%
Derby
Draw
33%
Loss
43%
Charlton
High confidence · 1X @ 77%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 4 settled results, most recent first.

Record
2W 0D 2L
Real goals
1.5 – 1.3
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Derby compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.26
Below average
Goals against
1.25
Tighter than most
Scored1.26
Conceded1.25

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.29 scored, 1.28 conceded).

📊 Derby in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
🏠 1.3✈️ 1.6
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
🏠 5.3✈️ 3.7
10.9
Shots · per game
faced 12.8
🏠 11.6✈️ 10.1
3.6
On target · per game
faced 4.2
🏠 3.7✈️ 3.5
🗓️ Last 6 games
08 Aug
1-2
vs Lincoln
🚩 3-6
08 Aug
1-2
vs Lincoln City
🚩 3-6
02 May
1-2
vs Sheffield United
🚩 6-3
25 Apr
3-2
@ QPR
🚩 6-10
21 Apr
1-2
@ Norwich
🚩 4-3
18 Apr
1-0
vs Oxford Utd
🚩 7-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Recent matches (last 4)

Derby prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly