Match prediction·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 15 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Charlton Athletic vs Derby County

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
42.7% home33.3% draw24.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Charlton AthleticstepDerby County
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Charlton average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Derby average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Charlton Athletic or draw
77%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Derby County to win
20%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Charlton Athletic fixtures & form →Derby County fixtures & form →

Charlton vs Derby — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Charlton and Derby — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Charlton 43% · draw 33% · Derby 24%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Charlton predictions & form →Derby predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.