Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional prediction — Liga Portugal · Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 UK

Liga Portugal · Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 UK
Vitória de Guimaraes 46Draw 26C.D. Nacional 27
The call
77%
Over 1.5 goals
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–0

How it finished

Vitória de Guimaraes beat C.D. Nacional 1–0. Bawler's model had Vitória de Guimaraes in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Vitória de Guimaraes had 23 shots (5 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 7 (0), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 3.1 to 0.4.

Vitória de…Full-time statsC.D. Nacional
48%Possession52%
3.1Expected goals (xG)0.4
23Shots7
5Shots on target0
13Shots inside box3
5Big chances0
4Corners3
0Saves3
18Fouls8
2Offsides1
2Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultVitória de Guimaraes 46%Vitória de Guimaraes (46% called)
Total goals2.81
Both teams to score55%No
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 77%Missed
Second call1X 73%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Vitória de Guimaraes to score80%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Under 3.5 goals70%
C.D. Nacional to score69%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5VIT 2 · D 1 · CCC 2
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

May 2026Nacional 2–0 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Jan 2026Vitoria de Guimaraes 2–1 Nacional
May 2025Nacional 1–2 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Dec 2024Vitoria de Guimaraes 2–2 Nacional
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional?

Vitória de Guimaraes beat C.D. Nacional 1–0. Bawler's model had Vitória de Guimaraes in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 1 was scored. Vitória de Guimaraes had 23 shots (5 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 7 (0), with 48% of the ball against 52%. Expected goals finished 3.1 to 0.4.

What was the final score in Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional?

Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0 C.D. Nacional, played on 23 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Vitória de Guimaraes 46%, the draw 26% and C.D. Nacional 27%.

What were the stats in Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional?

Full-time: Possession 48%–52%, Expected goals (xG) 3.1–0.4, Shots 23–7, Shots on target 5–0, Shots inside box 13–3, Big chances 5–0, Corners 4–3, Saves 0–3, Fouls 18–8, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–1.

Did both teams score in Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional?

No. It finished 1–0, so C.D. Nacional failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Vitória de Guimaraes 46%, it finished Vitória de Guimaraes (46% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 77%, it finished Missed; Second call — we said 1X 73%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Vitória de Guimaraes form →C.D. Nacional form →