FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 10 August 2026
Santa Clara 2–2 C.D. NacionalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 10 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Santa Clara at 43%, draw at 34%, C.D. Nacional at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Santa Clara to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Clara win
43%
Draw
34%
Actual ✓
Nacional win
23%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won