FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
C.D. Nacional 1–3 AlvercaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 40%, draw at 27%, Alverca at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was C.D. Nacional to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nacional win
40%
Draw
27%
Alverca win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.28
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Nacional's superior xG (1.42 to 1.28) and 40% win probability underpin the high-confidence forecast for Over 1.5 Goals at 75%, with both sides capable of breaching a thin defensive margin."