Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals at 73% is the play—Uzbekistan's Shomurodov and Colombia's Díaz carry identical 22% xG shares in a fixture projecting just 2.63 total expected goals, signaling efficient finishing from both sides' primary scorers.
Colombia average 4.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Uzbekistan vs Colombia — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Uzbekistan and Colombia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Uzbekistan 31% · draw 32% · Colombia 37%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.