What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 78%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Union St.-Gilloise should get at least a draw here. They have won six of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Real Sociedad. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Union St.-Gilloise or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's model rates this match: Union St.-Gilloise are favoured (56% win probability vs 22% for Real Sociedad, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Union St.-Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad (10.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.25.
How does Bawler predict Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Union St.-Gilloise 56%, the draw 23% and Real Sociedad 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.03 and away expected goals 1.22.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.25. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).