FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Valencia 2–3 Real SociedadMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Valencia at 47%, draw at 26%, Real Sociedad at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Valencia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
47%
Draw
26%
Sociedad win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.21
Total 2.85
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 79% forecast because Valencia's 0.55 xG advantage and Hugo Duro's 22% of team chances suggest enough attacking thrust to breach Real Sociedad's 1.20 expected output."