FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Union St.-Gilloise 1–1 Real SociedadMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Union St.-Gilloise or draw at 77%. Bawler had Union St.-Gilloise at 55%, the draw at 22% and Real Sociedad at 23%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Union St.-Gilloise win
55%
Draw
22%
Result
Real Sociedad win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.3
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Real Sociedad to win
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.