FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 11 October 2026

Union St.-Gilloise 1–1 OH LeuvenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Union St.-Gilloise to win at 78%. Bawler had Union St.-Gilloise at 78%, the draw at 15% and OH Leuven at 7%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Union St.-Gilloise win
78%
Draw
15%
Result
OH Leuven win
7%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.6 – 0.7
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Union St.-Gilloise to win
Pre-match: 78%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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