FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Real Sociedad 3–2 DeportivoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Sociedad or draw at 74%. Bawler had Real Sociedad at 49%, the draw at 25% and Deportivo at 26%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Sociedad win
49%
Result
Draw
25%
Deportivo win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Real Sociedad or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.