FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Antwerp 0–2 Union St.-GilloiseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Antwerp at 20%, draw at 23%, Union St.-Gilloise at 57%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Union St.-Gilloise.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Antwerp win
20%
Draw
23%
St.-Gilloise win
57%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.10 – 1.99
Total 3.09
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% because Union St.-Gilloise's 0.45 xG advantage compounds a low-scoring fixture into a likely multi-goal outcome."