FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Málaga 2–5 Real SociedadMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Sociedad or draw at 66%. Bawler had Málaga at 34%, the draw at 26% and Real Sociedad at 39%. The match finished 2–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Málaga win
34%
Draw
26%
Real Sociedad win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 5
Total 7 (+4.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 4.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.