Bawler / Türkiye vs Paraguay / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Saturday, 20 June 2026

Türkiye 0–1 ParaguayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 20 June 2026

Türkiye
0–1
Paraguay win
Paraguay
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Türkiye at 26%, draw at 34%, Paraguay at 40%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Paraguay.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Türkiye win
26%
Draw
34%
Paraguay win
40%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.06 – 1.35
Total 2.42
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% because both sides combine for 2.42 expected goals, with Paraguay's creator Almirón and striker Sanabria driving an xG threat (1.35) that edges Türkiye's (1.06) on the road."

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