Match prediction·World: World Cup·Saturday 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC

Türkiye vs Paraguay

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% because both sides combine for 2.42 expected goals, with Paraguay's creator Almirón and striker Sanabria driving an xG threat (1.35) that edges Türkiye's (1.06) on the road.

📊 Win probability
26.4% home33.5% draw40.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
TürkiyestepParaguay
1.06Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.06Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.35
🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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9
12
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Both teams to score
52%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Türkiye vs Paraguay — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Türkiye and Paraguay — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Türkiye 26% · draw 34% · Paraguay 40%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Türkiye 01 Paraguay
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.