Switzerland 0–0 ColombiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 07 July 2026

0–0

Draw

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Switzerland at 29%, draw at 31%, Colombia at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Colombia to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Switzerland win

29%

Draw

31%

Actual ✓

Colombia win

39%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.44 – 1.36

Total 2.80

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 71%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 51%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals at 71% is the lean here—both sides generate near-identical attacking threat (Switzerland 1.44 xG, Colombia 1.36), making goal-heavy outcomes the likeliest path in a fixture projected too even to separate decisively."

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