Match predictionΒ·World: World CupΒ·Tuesday 07 Jul, 20:00 UTC
Switzerland vs Colombia
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain β every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 71% is the lean hereβboth sides generate near-identical attacking threat (Switzerland 1.44 xG, Colombia 1.36), making goal-heavy outcomes the likeliest path in a fixture projected too even to separate decisively.
Win probability
29.1% home31.4% draw39.5% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
SwitzerlandstepColombia
1.44Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.36
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final goal estimate β what the model uses1.36
Scoreline distribution Β· chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
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4
5
6
0
6
8
6
3
1
1
9
12
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4
1
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6
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1
1
1
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home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 70.7% Β· @ 1.41
VALUEPro
Under 2.5 Goals
Model 50.9% Β· @ 1.96
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 25.2% Β· @ 3.97
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Luis DΓaz 1+ Shot on Target + Over 1.5 Goals + 1X
Model 22.4% Β· @ 4.47x
Star picks Β· player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Breel Embolo
Switzerland Β· Rennes
40%@ 2.50x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Luis DΓaz
Colombia Β· Bayern Munich
38%@ 2.63x fair
To Be BookedPro
Jefferson Lerma
Colombia Β· Crystal Palace
30%@ 3.33x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+