What we expect
In plain English
Swansea City are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Swansea City or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Swansea City vs Norwich City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Swansea City are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for Norwich City, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Swansea City vs Norwich City?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Swansea City 1-1 Norwich City (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.86.
How does Bawler predict Swansea City vs Norwich City?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Swansea City 42%, the draw 26% and Norwich City 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Swansea City vs Norwich City?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.55 and away expected goals 1.31.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Swansea City vs Norwich City?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.86. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).