FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Norwich City 0–1 PortsmouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Norwich City or draw at 72%. Bawler had Norwich City at 45%, the draw at 26% and Portsmouth at 28%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Norwich City win
45%
Draw
26%
Portsmouth win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Norwich City or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.