FT · England: Championship · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Norwich City 0–1 SouthamptonMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton or draw at 65%. Bawler had Norwich City at 35%, the draw at 25% and Southampton at 41%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Norwich City win
35%
Draw
25%
Southampton win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.7
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.