What we expect
In plain English
Brighton & Hove Albion are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six, and Sunderland have not beaten them in their last four meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Bawler's model rates this match: Brighton & Hove Albion are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for Sunderland, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Sunderland 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.91.
How does Bawler predict Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Sunderland 32%, the draw 26% and Brighton & Hove Albion 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.34 and away expected goals 1.57.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.91. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).