FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Brighton & Hove Albion 5–0 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brighton & Hove Albion or draw at 76%. Bawler had Brighton & Hove Albion at 52%, the draw at 24% and Crystal Palace at 24%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brighton & Hove Albion win
52%
Result
Draw
24%
Crystal Palace win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Brighton & Hove Albion to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.